With the Academy Award nominations now out, the race is finally on to guess wildly about which of the nine nominated films will win the big enchilada, best picture. Of course you could read our Buzzmeter panelists (latimes.com/buzzmeter) We here at The Envelope figured that at this point, a backward glance might be just as useful in guessing at the future. Here, we compare each of this year's contenders with a best picture winner from the past, looking for those commonalities that might offer insights into voters' minds. Not to diminish the dramatic elegance of this live-action feature, but no sci-fi film has won in the best picture category, and a paltry few winners have starred women, so we must stretch a bit further afield on this one.